The Gracenote virtual medals table, which is compiled using results data from key global and continental competitions since the Tokyo Olympics, has the U.S. on top both on gold medal count (39) and total medal count (123).
In 2028, the U.S. will host the next Olympics in Los Angeles after Paris.
Poland is projected to win a total of 11 medals: four gold, five silver, and two bronze, which would put them 21st in the medal table. At Tokyo 2020, Poland was 19th, earning 14 medals.
France is predicted to win 28 gold medals and 55 in total, a jump of 18 golds and 22 medals from its performance in Tokyo three years ago, and will replace the host nation of those Games, Japan, in third place on the table.
China, the last country apart from the U.S. to top the medal table, will retain second place with 35 gold medals, while Britain, Australia, and Japan will win the fourth highest number of gold medals with 13 each, Gracenote predicts.
The Russian Olympic Committee team was fifth on the Tokyo medals table, but only a few Russians and Belarusians will compete in Paris as neutral athletes because of sanctions put in place after the invasion of Ukraine.
“Almost all Russian and Belarusian competitors have been absent from international competitions since February 2022,” Gracenote, the content solutions unit of Nielsen, said in a news release.
“Any [Russian or Belarusian – TVP World) who takes part in Paris 2024 without results in this period cannot be predicted accurately. However, it appears that there will be limited participation of these athletes, and we expect the medal table to be the usual accurate reflection,” the report noted.
Ukraine, whose athletes have struggled to prepare for the Games because of the continuing conflict at home, is forecast to win three golds and 13 total medals in Paris.
At the bottom of the table, Tajikistan, Finland, San Marino, Trinidad & Tobago, North Korea, Fiji, Panama, and Vietnam are all forecast to win a single bronze medal.
